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How Wrong Were the Experts on Gold? Way Off!

At the beginning of the year, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which governs the twice-daily London gold price fix, invites investment and institutional analysts to enter its long-running forecasting competition for gold prices.

The majority of the experts predicted gold would plunge below $1,000 during the year. Even the winner of last year’s competition, Bernard Dahdah of French investment bank Natixis, predicted average numbers in the triple digits for gold in 2016. You couldn’t find a bull in the bunch.

Instead of drooping under the $1,000 threshold, gold has rallied to above $1,300 and many analysts are now confidently predicting $1,400 or even $1,500 for gold before the year ends.

How wrong were these “experts”!

The year’s barely half gone, but inflows to precious metals-backed exchange traded products (especially gold) are headed for a banner year if the pace so far holds up, says international bank Barclay’s.

In just the first seven months of 2016, inflows to ETPs have already topped the previous record for the amount of money flowing into the precious metals funds. According to Barclays research, combined inflows for all ETPs from January through July reached $50.8 billion, with nearly $8 billion added in just the last two months. That’s the strongest tally since the January-July stretch in 2009 in the safe-haven rally from the financial crisis.

“Precious metals, and gold in particular, have been the most favored commodity sector, attracting heavy inflows via ETPs, and so far 2016 is shaping up to be the best year ever for inflows to this type of product,” the bank said.

“Precious metals were still the driving force behind ETPs inflows, bringing in $4 billion, $5.5 billion and $1.6 billion for May, June and July, respectively,” Barclays said. “Gold ETPs […]

By |August 23rd, 2016|Uncategorized|0 Comments

Records Fall at Fourth Pogue Auction

Part 4 of the D. Brent Pogue Collection Sale is in the books – including the record books.
Just 61 coins changed hands in the fourth Pogue auction, held May 24 in New York, but they brought a remarkable total of $16,722,600. That figures out to an average of nearly $275,000 per lot.
The total, and the average, would have been much higher if the two most celebrated coins in the entire sale – the finest known specimen of the 1804 silver dollar and the only 1822 half eagle in private hands – had been sold at the auction. Both, however, fell short of the lofty reserves set by the collection’s owner, Texas real estate magnate D. Brent Pogue.
Even so, the four Pogue sessions held so far have realized a total of more than $85.3 million – more than any previous coin auction sale. And several segments remain.
The highest-priced coin actually sold at the one-night Part 4 session was an 1833 Capped Bust Left half eagle, which realized $1,351,250, including the buyer’s fee. The coin was graded Proof-67 by PCGS, making it the finest pre-1835 U.S. gold coin known to exist.
Also breaking the million-dollar barrier was a 1795 Draped Bust silver dollar, which brought $1,057,000. Eleven of the 61 coins sold at the latest Pogue session will now rank among the Top 250 auction records.
The market for traditional U.S. commemorative coins, which has been relatively weak in recent years, still has some life in it – at least when it comes to superbly toned mint-state and proof examples.
A young dealer friend recently wanted to add a few attractively toned commemorative half dollars to his collection. He is trying to slowly build a high-quality 144-piece PCGS […]

2016 Gold Rush Picks Up Steam

There was great excitement and wide public interest recently when the U.S. Treasury Department announced plans to redesign all or part of three different paper money denominations – the $5, $10 and $20 bills – during the next decade-and-a-half.   

The changes will touch the lives of virtually every American, and could stir substantial new activity in the buying and selling of collectible U.S. currency.

But the currency changes won’t take effect for a while, since the Treasury needs time to prepare the new portraiture and fine-tune security features. (Noting that Alexander Hamilton will continue to appear on the $10 bill, while Andrew Jackson will be down-sized on the $20, The Wall Street Journal commented that Hamilton, who died in a dual “dodged the bullet” this time.)    

Another exciting story – one with much more immediate and greater potential implications for millions of Americans – is unfolding right now in the precious metals market.

In the first fourth months of 2016, gold rose from $1,060 an ounce to $1,293, finishing April at its highest point since Jan. 27, 2015, a span of over 15 months. That’s an increase of 22 percent. Meanwhile, silver surged during the same period from $13.82 an ounce to $17.87 – a jump of over 29 percent. By contrast, the major stock indexes were up only 1 to 2 percent in this year’s first four months.

Far from discouraging investors and collectors from purchasing gold and silver in bullion and collectible forms, this triggered a burst of new buying activity.

In the first four months of 2016, the Mint sold 351,000 ounces of gold American Eagle bullion coins – exactly twice the amount it sold during the same time frame last year. And […]

Counterfeit Gold And Silver Coin Fraud Is A Growing Problem

Our industry leaders met in Dallas in early March to discuss the growing number of complaints about gold coin scams and gold coin fraud using counterfeit coins and counterfeit coin packaging.

Then, one of the biggest fraud stories in the coin world last week was the discovery of a series of fake gold bars professionally packaged in an apparent exact knockoff of the packaging design of a leading Swiss precious metals dealer. These are believed to originate out of China, where fraudsters seem to be able to counterfeit anything these days. Not only was the “.9999 gold” a counterfeit, but so was the packaging.

In recent months, we’ve also heard complaints about counterfeit gold and silver American Eagle bullion coins and phony one-ounce silver rounds used in coin rip-offs.

In previous years, we have also seen tungsten bars painted over with gold leaf or gold bars with tungsten filling. In an interview with NBC News about these tungsten-filled “gold” bars, Mike Fuljenz said, “The people who get hit by gold coin and bullion rip-offs are not the bigger dealers,” since they have the knowledge and the tools to detect counterfeits, but smaller dealers are more often scammed.

Whenever the price of gold makes a positive move, as it has done in the first quarter of 2016, we see ads from coin dealers sprouting up like weeds. Publications have little or no way to check out advertisers. Their main criterion for reliability is whether the check they receive in payment for the ad clears the bank.

Don’t be tricked by an ad on the Internet or on late-night television. As many a parent has told a child, “Nothing good ever happens after midnight.” Always check the industry credentials on any […]